Local elections live: Farage’s Reform expected to take hundreds of seats

A total of 1,641 council seats across the 23 authorities are up for grabs on Thursday.

Reform is standing 1,631 candidates, according analysis of nominations data, more than either Labour or the Conservatives.

The Conservatives have 1,596 candidates (97.3 per cent of seats) while Labour has 1,543 (94 per cent), while further behind are the Liberal Democrats, with 1,396 candidates (85.1 per cent), and the Greens, with 1,183 (72.1 per cent).

Fewer people than ever are prepared to vote Tory or Labour as Reform look set to claim hundreds of seats at this week’s local elections, polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice has said.

Speaking exclusively to The Independent at the weekend, Prof Curtice said less than half of voters are telling pollsters they will vote for one of the two main parties, in a historic shift in voting patterns.

He said: “Fewer than half of the people who tell pollsters how they are going to vote say they are going to vote either Conservative or Labour. It has never been quite that low before.”

Some 1,641 council seats are up for grabs on Thursday, across 23 local authorities, while six mayoralties are also being contested.

These are the first major electoral tests for the parties since last July’s general election, which saw Labour win a majority of seats in the House of Commons.

Alongside local elections, the by-election in Runcorn and Helsby will see Nigel Farage’s party trying to overturn Labour’s victory last summer, in a vote triggered after Mike Amesbury received a suspended prison sentence for punching a man.

Luke Tryl of More in Common said on Tuesday that Reform should win the contest if their polling figures are correct.

If they do not win, Mr Tryl believes it could suggest two things: firstly that enthusiasm for the party is being overstated by polling, or secondly, that their operation of getting people out on polling day is not as good as other parties.

“We know that Labour in particular in general – not always – tends to have a better get out the vote operation on the ground,” Mr Tryl added.

New polling released by YouGov on Tuesday indicated Reform are continuing to lead Labour nationally, with Mr Farage’s party sitting on 26 per cent, up one per cent on the previous week, and Sir Keir Starmer’s party stuck on 23 per cent, with the Tories on 20.

Luke Tryl, executive director at More in Common, has warned that “disillusionment” is a primary driver ahead of the local elections.

“I don’t think I’m exaggerating to say that the groups that we did over the past week are some of the most disillusioned, disappointed, disaffected that we’ve run,” said Mr Tryl.

“There was a real sense that people keep demanding change from politics and they’re not getting that change, and that they are as a result not just thinking things are bad, but starting to lose faith in the inability of the system to change things.”

Among people who are considering voting Reform, Mr Tryl suggested, there is a feeling of “we may as well roll the dice on getting something different”.

There are rising concerns that Reform UK is on the cusp of a major breakthrough in this week’s local elections, following “deep disillusionment” with Labour and the Tories.

Nigel Farage’s party is expected to win a parliamentary by-election and two mayoral contests as well as take hundreds of seats across England on Thursday.

Polling by More in Common showed Labour on 18 per cent, behind Reform on 26 per cent and the Conservatives on 25 per cent, in the areas where elections are taking place.

The poll, which also suggests that Reform voters are the most keen to send a national message in the local elections, was commissioned as part of Channel 4 News live special ‘Election 2025: The Debate’.

Tory, Lib Dem and Labour voters said they thought competence to run the council was the most important issue at stake on Thursday, a reason cited by 47 per cent of those voting Conservative.

But among those intending to cast their ballot for Reform, the most important issue was national policies on immigration, with 67 per cent highlighting it as their main reason for backing the party.

The most popular political leader is “none of the above” a new poll shows just hours before voters go to the polls in the local elections.

Ahead of Thursday’s local elections, polling company More In Common asked voters who they thought would be most effective at governing the country with 41 per cent responding: “None of the above.”

The second most popular choice was Mr Farage with 23 per cent, followed by Keir Starmer on 19 per cent, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch with 8 per cent, the Lib Dem’s Ed Davey on 6 per cent. The Green’s co-leaders, Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay, last with 2 per cent.

Overall, the poll showed Labour on 18 per cent, behind Reform on 26 per cent and the Conservatives on 25 per cent, in the areas where elections are taking place.

Kate Devlin and Alicja Hagopian report: