Why is the Israel-Gaza ceasefire deal at risk of collapse?

A ceasefire deal struck between Israel and Hamas is at risk of collapse after the militant group suspended the handover of hostages.

A spokesperson for the armed wing of Hamas said it was postponing Saturday’s scheduled release of three Israeli hostages, blaming Israeli violations of the fragile truce signed a month ago.

In response, US president Donald Trump has said the ceasefire should be cancelled if all hostages held in Gaza are not returned by noon on Saturday.

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned his country would resume fighting if Hamas did not meet the deadline, but did not say how many hostages should be freed.

Mr Netanyahu said he had also ordered the military to gather forces in and around Gaza.

The standoff threatens to reignite a conflict which started when Hamas killed around 1,200 people in a terror attack on southern Israel on 7 October 2023, and abducted another 250.

For updates on the Isreal-Hamas ceasefire – follow our blog by clicking here

In response, Israel launched a devastating bombing and ground campaign in Gaza, killing more than 46,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s health ministry.

Why is Israel threatening to end it’s ceasefire with Hamas?

Under the ceasefire deal signed on 19 January, Hamas has so far freed 16 Israeli hostages from an initial group of 33 children, women and older men. They are being exchanged for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and detainees in the first stage of the multi-phase ceasefire deal.

It comes before a second phase of the agreement, which mediators hope will lead to the release of the remaining hostages and the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. However, talks in Doha broke down on Monday when the Israeli team returned home just two days after arriving.

This week, Hamas announced it was suspending the handover because of what it said were Israeli violations of the ceasefire terms.

In response, Mr Trump demanded all hostages be released on Saturday at noon, before Mr Netanyahu warned of a return to “intense fighting” if more hostages were freed on Saturday, without saying how many.

Mr Netanyahu is under pressure in his country where thousands of protesters took to the streets this week to callon the government to continue with the ceasefire deal to bring the remaining hostages back.

Why has Hamas paused the hostage exchange?

Earlier this week, Abu Obeida, spokesman for the armed wing of Hamas, announced the postponement of Saturday’s planned release of three Israeli hostages.

The group has accused Israel of delaying the return of Palestinians to northern Gaza, carrying out strikes across the enclave and hindering the entry of humanitarian aid. On Wednesday, Israeli military said it had struck two people in the southern Gaza Strip who were flying a drone.

Gaza’s health ministry said at least 92 Palestinians have been killed and more than 800 wounded by Israeli fire since the ceasefire deal.

Hamas has said the “door remains open” to the exchange going ahead on Saturday if Israel “complies” with its obligations, according to news agency AFP.

What is in the first phase of the ceasefire?

A six-week initial ceasefire phase includes the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from central Gaza and the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza.

Hamas will release 33 Israeli hostages, including all women (soldiers and civilians), children, and men over 50. Hamas will release female hostages and under 19s first, followed by men over 50.

So far, 16 have been released.

Israeli troops would also pull out of all populated areas of Gaza during the first stage while “the Palestinians [could] also return to their neighbourhoods in all the areas of Gaza”, said former US president Joe Biden at the time of the deal being signed.

The agreement also stipulates that aid deliveries to Gaza should rise to 600 trucks daily, surpassing the minimum requirement of 500 trucks that aid agencies deem necessary to address the territory’s dire humanitarian crisis.

What is the second phase of the ceasefire?

Negotiations over a second phase of the agreement appear to have broken down after an Israeli team returned from talks in Doha after two days.

It is hoped it will include the release of all remaining hostages, including Israeli male soldiers, a permanent ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of Israeli soldiers.

The second and most difficult phase will mark “a permanent end to the war,” president Biden said.

It will include the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers, and Israeli forces would withdraw completely from Gaza.

Hamas said it will not release the remaining captives without a lasting ceasefire and a full Israeli withdrawal.

What is the third phase of the ceasefire?

The third and final stage would involve the reconstruction of Gaza – something which could take years – and the return of any remaining hostages’ bodies.

The deal requires 600 truckloads of humanitarian aid to be allowed into Gaza every day of the ceasefire, 50 of them carrying fuel, and 300 of the trucks allocated to the north of the strip.

Israel allows aid into the enclave but there have been disputes over the amount allowed in, as well as the amount that reaches people in need, with looting by criminal gangs an increasing problem.

What next for Gaza?

As uncertainty hangs over the current ceasefire, it’s still not clear what will happen and who will manage Gaza if the truce deal is completed.

Israel has said it will not end the war leaving Hamas in power. It has also rejected administration of Gaza by the Palestinian Authority, the Western-backed body set up under the Oslo interim peace accords.

The international community has said Gaza must be run by Palestinians, but efforts to find alternatives to the main factions among civil society or clan leaders have proved largely fruitless.

Last week, Mr Trump announced a plan for the US to take over Gaza, move out its more than 2 million Palestinian inhabitants and redevelop it into an international beach resort.

But the idea has faced opposition neighbouring countries who claim it could fuel regional instability.

Reuters contributed to this report